OK, I admit it – I’m over three months’ late in writing this post.  Mea Culpa!  I’ve been busy…which is always a good thing.

2015 seems to have been a “tipping point” year in many respects. By this I mean that while many people are still struggling, it is clear that we are rounding a corner, of sorts. The number of short sales, foreclosures, and other distressed transactions have fallen significantly. Most importantly, as almost everyone knows, in many vicinities, the Oregon housing market is on fire.

Interest rates are still low, and sellers are now in the black, meaning that they will recover some equity upon re-sale.  In fact, there’s a bit of a feeding frenzy out there, with competitive bidding, and some closing prices thousands of dollars higher than their original listing prices.  In the vernacular, homes are “flying off the shelf”. This has had some risky and negative consequences however; some buyers, in an effort to get to the front of the line, are foregoing what, in normal times, would be called standard due diligence items, such a professional inspections.

And, for those monitoring such things, the Fed has now abandoned its Quantitative Easing program, although, interestingly, its stated intent to increase rates by .25% approximately four times in 2016 has not materialized.  We’ve had one in December, 2015, and that was it. Why?  Because although U.S. economic numbers are improving, elsewhere in the world, there is unrest, and uncertainty. Many in Britain want to exit the European Common Market (aka the “Brexit”), Greece still cannot get its financial house in order, the migrant issue is overwhelming Europe, there is no apparent movement toward a settlement in Syria, and the political division in this country is approaching Grand Canyon proportions.

I said last year in this post:

Following the Republican sweep of the House and Senate, I will be watching to see if they can remain in marching formation up to 2016, without breaking rank. Currently, it does not appear they will succeed, but we shall see.

They failed to come even close to remaining in formation. What I did not appreciate or foresee at the time – nor, apparently, did few others – was the massive, though quiet, discontent of millions of people, who (a) as unemployed or underemployed, have been treading water for the past seven years, or (b) as ostensibly disenfranchised young people, appear to believe capitalism has failed them.  At the same time, as if on que, the political landscape got turned upside down, with the entry of outliers like Donald Trump, a 69-year old carnival barker, and Bernie Sanders, a 74-year old avowed socialist, both of whom have filled a void that mainstream politicians were unable to do.

I will avoid the temptation to air my opinions at this time. However, for the remainder of 2016, as I observe this train wreck called an election head into convention season, I suspect a rant or two will bubble to the surface on this website.

Of course, I will continue to monitor the state and national real estate scene, with articles on current topics, a few prognostications, and an occasional swipe at one or two of the Big Banks.  ~Phil